When will a player's price increase or decrease in Fantasy Premier League (FPL)?
The answer is that we don’t know for sure when. FPL have their own hidden formula, most likely based (among other things) on the actual demand for a player. This may then be further calculated via net transfers with set quotas to be met from FPL gamers’ transfers to ultimately determine if a player’s price will rise or fall.
For instance, if a Premier League footballer has had a really good gameweek his price is likely to rise due to subsequent demand. Whereas a popularly selected Premier League player suffering from bad form will eventually have decreased demand and almost certainly see his price fall in the following gameweek(s) due to being transferred out. Courtesy of my friends at FPL Dugout, I was referred to the following website (FISO Crack the Code*) which can provide estimated projections* of player price increases and decreases.
*Disclaimer: They are not 100% correct and their projections should only be used as a guideline.
The benefit of knowing price changes is crucial as it will ultimately affect your team value and your spending power. Thus you will benefit if a player from your FPL team increases in value. But you may also be short changed if a player from your FPL team decreases in value. This isn’t to say that a player with a declining price will not bounce back or a player rising in price will not go through a bad patch in the future. As with all FPL decisions it’s all about calculated probability, some luck, a bit of skill on your part and some hunches, etc. Do bare the above in mind when making FPL transfers in the future.
The above article was originally posted on FPL Hints, Dec 2011